Crucial few days in Middle East with region on brink of a ceasefire – or new conflict
Many are speculating an attack on Israel could come in the next 48 hours. While the Middle East waits to see what – if anything – Iran and Hezbollah do, pressure is growing on Israel to agree to a ceasefire deal over its war in Gaza.
It’s been 13 days since the dual assassinations of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and still the region awaits retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah.
The wait has been deliberate, to play on the psychology of the Israeli public and keep Israel‘s allies guessing.
To that end, it’s worked – most major airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv, the shekel has fallen against the dollar, the Tel Aviv stock market is down and Israelis are nervously wondering what will happen next.
There are now strong rumours that the attacks might come in the next 24 to 48 hours, led initially by Hezbollah and then followed up by Iran.
If that happens, it would coincide with the Jewish festival of Tisha B’av which marks the destruction of the two ancient Jewish Temples – if Hezbollah and Iran are going for symbolism, this could be the moment.
Iran was humiliated after the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran and wants to restore deterrence. How they achieve that, without tipping the region to war, is unclear.
In an unusual public announcement, the US has revealed the deployment of a submarine to the Middle East and hastened the arrival of a carrier strike group.
This move is part of its deterrence messaging, to show support for Israel and warn its enemies against escalating; it is also to defend US military interests in the region.
The IDF Home Command has not changed its guidance to civilians and on Sunday night reassured the Israeli public they would do so only if and when they had concrete intelligence an attack might be imminent.
For now, they are urging calm.
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Tehran might calculate now is the time to settle scores before ceasefire talks take place on Thursday.
Depending on the scale of any attack, and the subsequent fallout, there is a logic in clearing the decks before negotiators get back around the table.
Alternatively, both Iran and Hezbollah could wait to see the outcome of those talks before acting – a ceasefire, were it to be agreed, would give both the off-ramp they might be privately hoping for.
Pressure for a deal
The diplomatic pressure on Israel and Hamas to finally agree a deal is huge.
Early on Monday morning the leaders of Britain, France and Germany released a statement urging progress – and Israeli media reported over the weekend US President Biden might be prepared to publicly name and shame Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar if he feels they move to block a truce.
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Hamas released a statement on Sunday night suggesting they support the deal put forward by President Biden in early July and agreed upon by the UN Security Council, but oppose attempts to draft a whole new deal.
Some, incorrectly, interpreted the statement as a rejection of the talks outright.
Netanyahu is also under extreme domestic pressure to take a deal, not just from protesters but also his security establishment who believe the conditions are now right.
The far-right members of his coalition have reiterated their threats to leave government if a ceasefire is agreed, but with the Knesset in recess, Netanyahu might feel the time is right to roll the dice and get the hostages out.
That could all prove moot, however, if Iran and Hezbollah launch a full-scale attack on Israel.
In just a matter of days, the region could be on the brink of war or edging towards a ceasefire.
This is the week it might all come to a head.
