Lebanon increasingly pessimistic about avoiding a regional war it can ill afford

Lebanon is preparing for all-out war; even as the Gaza ceasefire talks begin.

We joined Firas Abyad, the Lebanese health minister, as he did a tour of hospitals to see their disaster plans and hear about their preparations if there is a major emergency.

Middle East latest: Gaza ceasefire talks ‘likely to go into tomorrow’

“Part of what we are doing is to make sure our hospitals are ready to receive patients and casualties and plans are enacted in these different regions if there is a large number of internally displaced population,” the minister told us.

He said they had identified key centres for mass evacuations and tried to bolster the nation’s health infrastructure despite already depleted government funds due to a string of recent crises.

These include the coronavirus pandemic, an economic collapse and the huge explosion at Beirut port four years ago.

The country can ill afford a war right now, but most people in Lebanon that we spoke to are increasingly pessimistic about the prospect of a resolution to the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s collective blood pressure went up several notches with the twin assassinations of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in Tehran and Beirut about a fortnight ago.

Iran and Hezbollah are blaming Israel for both bombings, although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied it was responsible for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Since then, the Iranian Supreme Leader and the head of Hezbollah have both vowed revenge on Israel.

If retaliation is carried out as promised, the Lebanese people are bracing themselves for another round of Israeli attacks and anticipating the cycle of violence to continue.

Many of the country’s doctors and nurses have been given extra training to cope with war injuries which they may not ordinarily have much widespread experience in – such as bullet wounds, traumatic amputations and catastrophic bleeding caused by bomb blasts and shrapnel.

“We are scared,” one young nurse told us. “Of course, we are all scared. We don’t know what is going to happen.”

The disaster planning has been going on for the past month, building up a nationwide stockpile of medicines in case there’s a sea and air blockade.

The health minister told us: “In past wars like in 2006 [when Israel and Hezbollah were involved in a 34-day conflict], our airport was bombed and our ports blockaded, so we’ve been building up stores in case this happens.

“I believe we have enough for about four months.”

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At the Mazboud Government Hospital in the Mount Lebanon Governorate, about a half an hour drive out of Beirut, the hospital administrator told us the main priority has been planning for a swift evacuation if the hospital itself is attacked.

“We can evacuate the hospital in about a half hour,” Shadi Hanouni told us. “We think if there’s a war, Israel will attack us here.

“They don’t treat anything differently whether it is a hospital or a school, they just attack everything.”

He went on to say: “All the hospital staff are worried. They don’t know if they’ll be able to return to their homes if there’s war or if they will stay here for 24 hours all the time. But they are ready for it.”

The streets are noticeably less busy with many families retreating to mountain areas they view as safer.

Multiple embassies – including Britain’s – have warned their citizens to leave the country or not to travel to Lebanon. Several airlines have restricted their flights for a period, with some cancelling them altogether.

Water supply shops are reporting an increase in sales of up to 10% as residents stockpile water. But for the poor, who live from day to day, there are few options.

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Ali Zangar, who earns a small living picking up garbage, said: “The rich can afford to leave the country.

“It’s only the poor like us who will be left behind if there’s war.”