Early release of thousands of prisoners is deeply unpopular – so will it work?

Today’s release is the chance for hundreds of prisoners to turn their lives around – or to go back to their old ways.

It’s also crunch time to turn around the woeful situation in our overcrowded jails that has led to this decision. Can it work? Can the prison system be fixed?

Tuesday’s cohort of early leavers are those serving sentences of less than five years, and on 22 October it will be the turn of those with sentences of five years or more – but the government insists it won’t apply to most serious offenders such as killers, rapists and terrorists.

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the scheme would free up space for 5,500 offenders. The alternative, she told me, would be “unthinkable” – judges no longer able to hand down sentences because there is no room to house new offenders.

However unpopular, the move is much needed – and it still might not be enough.

Prisons in England and Wales are almost full.

Official figures for 6 September 2024 showed the total prison population to be 88,521.

Useable operational capacity for the system stands at 89,619.

But that really is the top end, most prisons are already over-stuffed.

As well as “operational capacity” you can also measure capacity by “certified normal accommodation” (CNA).

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This is the number of people that can be held in each prison in safe and decent accommodation. On this measurement 75 of the 122 prisons in England and Wales are at 100% capacity or over. The most packed is Durham at 172% capacity.

All this has contributed to the “devastating picture” described in today’s annual report by the chief inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor finding a surge in violence, drug use and self-harm along with a failure to rehabilitate prisoners.

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All leading to Mr Taylor’s assertion that many prisoners are in “a revolving door”, with untreated mental health and drug problems.

Often with nowhere to live when they come out, they re-offend – sometimes to feed a drug habit they acquired in prison.

Mr Taylor told Sky News: “That of course, just creates more victims of crime, more mayhem in communities and a prison population that is now almost unmanageable.”

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One prisoner coming out on early release this morning even admitted to us there was a “99% chance” he will get recalled due to his bail conditions, while another said they were released to become homeless.

So, losing 5,500 prisoners will give breathing space – but will still leave prisons incredibly stretched, under-resourced and at current re-offending rates, about 1,375 of the released inmates will be back soon.

According to the Institute for Government, the growth in the population has been driven by longer sentences, with average custodial sentences now 25% longer than they were in 2012. Those on remand and those recalled to prison have also more recently caused the population to rise rapidly.

The Institute for Government says that because of the growing backlog in the courts, the number of people on remand has risen 84% since 2019 and now accounts for almost 20% of the total prison population.

Equally the number of people released on parole and then recalled is up 72% since 2019.

Speaking to Ms Mahmood yesterday, I got no sense that she thinks prisoners should get shorter sentences.

So to fix all these problems long-term, the courts need speeding up, the prison and probation service needs investment and more prisons need to be built – all of which the government promises to do, but with what money?

And even with investment – it will take time.