How the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is affecting US election bets and polls

In any other race, an assassination attempt on a candidate would have been the most dramatic and potentially game-changing event.

This race has now seen two on Donald Trump. And that follows already extraordinary affairs like the last-minute replacement of a sitting president as candidate.

But look at our recently launched poll tracker, and it looks as placid as an undisturbed puddle – US vice president Kamala Harris ahead, with minor fluctuations.

And that’s including some of the recent polls following the Trump-Harris debate.

Why so steady? Because it’s an average of very many polls, because the polls themselves are slow to react to events, and also because so much of the electorate has already decided who they’re voting for.

But if you want to get a sense of a real race, wheel-to-wheel, with candidates edging ahead and then falling behind one another, look at the betting data.

You can see events causing big shifts almost in real time, including the most recent apparent assassination attempt, which appears to show a small drop in the odds.

Compare that with the rise he saw after the assassination attempt on 13 July.

Or look at US President Joe Biden’s odds falling away immediately after his debate with Mr Trump.

And last week’s Trump-Harris debate seems to have boosted Ms Harris’s odds.

There are caveats to this – betting on presidential elections is banned in the US, so this is all from international bets.

But it’s still a lot of money, with some £66m having been bet so far, according to Betfair – and people are putting all that money where their mouths are.

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The main takeaway is just how tight this is. That might seem odd when you look back again at the headline polling, showing a consistent Harris lead.

But because of the US system, and the electoral college, in which states award votes, Ms Harris needs to be significantly further ahead.

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And the reason the race is so tight – the reason the betting markets show it moving so much, even if the polling doesn’t – is we can’t say whether Ms Harris’s lead will be enough.

Right now it’s better than Hilary Clinton’s in 2016 – where she won the popular vote and still lost the electoral college – but not as big as Mr Biden’s in 2020.

Pollsters have different thoughts about how big her lead needs to be to translate to electoral college success.

But even then, in a swing state like Pennsylvania, one which is pivotal in this race, it could come down to a tiny fraction of the electorate.

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In 2016, just over six million people voted in Pennsylvania, and Mrs Clinton lost that state by only 44,000 votes.

That’s how tight this race is – and why so many are having a flutter.