Donald Trump had the election in the bag, until he didn’t

The Butler farm showground doesn’t necessarily feel like a place where history was made. 

When I visited, dog walkers and morning exercisers shuffled through the morning dew, making use of the silence and emptiness of their community space, no longer a crime scene.

It’s currently between marquee events, having just de-rigged the 76th Farm Show – a celebration of all things rural and agricultural in west Pennsylvania. It’s the fixture that helped put Butler on the map, before the other one.

The events of 13 July are represented in the surrounding furniture at the showground – the beige buildings of the glass research company next door, so familiar from media coverage. It was from their roof that a gunman fired the shots that took the life of a local man, Corey Comperatore, and almost killed Donald Trump.

Today, on the roof, there are darkened stains on the spot where the gunman was killed by a sniper’s bullet. It’s a reminder nobody needs of the horror that happened here.

The shooting was a shocking event that traumatises this place, still. There is lasting political impact, too.

In Butler, on 13 July, Mr Trump had the election won. He was already well ahead of a struggling Joe Biden when events, and his emergence with strength and defiance, infused him with new support and stature.

The Republican National Convention, which began two days later, felt like a victory lap.

But when they changed the riders, they changed the race.

Harris/Walz versus Trump/Vance is an ever-tighter contest and the polls reflect consistent progress for the new Democratic ticket.

Donald Trump appears uncertain of a fixed plan of attack and has settled for being, basically, Donald Trump – personally insulting.

Republican strategists point to focus group research and scream for attack lines on the economy, crime and immigration – and Mr Trump delivers until he doesn’t, and rolls out a hackneyed routine that questions his rival’s intelligence, sanity and racial identity to name but three.

Much of it worked against Mr Biden but it’s not landing the same against a different, younger, opponent.

In Butler County, I chatted Trump and tactics with James Hulings, the chair of the county’s Republican Committee. He is a big supporter of Mr Trump, albeit with campaign concerns.

Read more:
Harris campaign targeted by ‘foreign actor’
Biden reveals why he pulled out of election race
Why Harris picked Tim Walz as running mate

He said: “He has a tremendous message for the people, the economy, war, what people think of the United States.

“I think he should go on principle, on things that matter to the people, like their ability to buy food and gas and send their kids to college.

“You can’t go after a person’s personality. If you’re going after somebody’s personality, you’re a loser. You’re done, it’s over. You have to go on who has the better values. Who’s going to do the most for the country. Where are we going to be in four years if we keep doing what we’re doing now.”

Butler County is solid Trump territory, a corner of the state of Pennsylvania that could swing either way. Winning here is critical – there’s a reason Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz chose it to make their debut as a duo after his selection.

Catherine Lalonde is chair of the Democratic Committee in Butler County. I asked her view of Mr Trump and his campaign as it stands.

She said: “I think he looks weaker. He looks older compared to Kamala and, now that there’s no one to compare him to that’s making slips, as Biden was – unfortunately – he just looks older. I wouldn’t say he looks less sure of himself, he’s always sure of himself, but I think his rambling is more noticeable.”

Be the first to get Breaking News

Install the Sky News app for free

There was a time and a place in Butler County when the US election seemed all over, bar the voting. Not anymore.