The question over how a second attempt on Trump’s life may affect election is urgent
With just seven weeks out from election day, how will voters react to the apparent second bid on Mr Trump’s life, especially as the race for the White House is now so different compared to the first.
Donald Trump loves golf “more than he loves money,” according to Jack Nicklaus, one of the greats of the game.
He plays at least a couple of times a week and owns 16 courses, from Florida to Aberdeen.
The fairways are where he, supposedly, escapes the stresses of the campaign trail.
He deserved an expectation of safety at Trump International in West Palm Beach, although it is one of the largest and most exposed places a former president could visit, presenting a huge challenge for his security detail.
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It is not a political arena, but what happened between holes five and six on Sunday afternoon is now very much a part of the narrative of the 2024 election.
Just 64 days after surviving an assassination attempt, Trump was targeted again.
Now just seven weeks out from election day, the question of how another security breach might affect him in the polls is an urgent one.
Within a few hours of shots ringing out at the course, round-robin messages were sent to his supporters with a link to donate.
“I am safe and well,” the first one read. Then: “My resolve is stronger after another attempt on my life!”
His campaign team are alive to the political opportunity this event presents, particularly with the polls so tight between him and Kamala Harris.
After Trump was shot in Butler, Pennsylvania, the image of him with his fist raised and ear bloodied became part of the framing of him as a living martyr, a strongman in contrast to the ailing Joe Biden.
In the week after he soared ahead of President Biden in all seven key swing states and some thought that searing image of defiance had won him the election.
But it is a very different race now.
Kamala Harris is his opponent and has closed the gap on him in the polls, even nudging ahead in some of those crucial states.
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The attempt on his life in July is not often spoken about – it wasn’t a feature of their head-to-head debate last week – and does not feel like a significant factor in the race.
Historic precedent also cautions against the idea that an assassination attempt equals a lasting boost.
Another former president, Gerald Ford, was targeted by two would-be assassins in the space of just over two weeks in 1975.
He became slightly more popular after, like Trump, declaring he would not shy away from public appearances. But his approval rating fell below the pre-assassination attempt level and he lost his reelection campaign the following year.
