Could Donald Trump run again in 2028?
Donald Trump has alluded to wanting three terms as president. But is he really likely to try it, and is it even possible?
Donald Trump will be one of only two presidents to serve two non-consecutive terms after his US election win this week, second only to Grover Cleveland, who did it in the 1800s.
It’s already a historic victory – but Mr Trump has made comments in the past hinting at a third term in office.
An amendment in the Constitution, which is the supreme law of the United States, prohibits anyone from serving for more than two terms.
But what has the incoming president said, how likely is he to pursue a third term in 2028 – and is it even possible?
Has a third term been done before?
Franklin Roosevelt served as US president four times from 1933 to 1945, because there was nothing in the original US Constitution which limited how many terms a president could serve.
But later the 22nd Amendment limited presidents to two four-year terms, irrespective of whether they were served consecutively or not.
Congress passed the 22nd Amendment two years after Roosevelt’s death and it took effect from the 1952 election, which Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower won over Democrat Adlai Stevenson.
No one has been able to serve more than two terms since.
What has Trump said?
It was in the lead-up to the 2020 election, which Mr Trump lost to Joe Biden, that he first started hinting at seeking a third term.
At a rally in August 2020, he told supporters he would win the next election and then possibly “go for another four years” because “they spied on my campaign,” an apparent nod to his unsubstantiated claims that Barack Obama had his “wires tapped” before he was elected in 2016.
According to Forbes, Mr Trump told another rally that if he were to win the 2020 election, he would “negotiate” a third term, adding he was “probably entitled to another four [years] after that” based on “the way we were treated”.
But in an interview last year with Sky News’ US partner NBC News, Mr Trump was asked if there was any scenario in which he would seek a third term should he win the presidency next year, to which he responded: “No.”
And in April 2024 he told Time magazine he “wouldn’t be in favour” of an extended term – but two vague comments he made in speeches this year have stoked rumours he could try it.
One was during a National Rifle Association speech, when he asked supporters if he would be considered “three-term or two-term” – though this appears to be in reference to his unsubstantiated claims that he should have won the 2020 election but that it was rigged against him.
Another came in July, when he told attendees at a conservative Christian event they wouldn’t “have to vote anymore” if he won the 2024 election, according to CBS News.
After repeatedly telling them to vote “just this time”, he added: “In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not going to have to vote.”
Why Trump is unlikely to try it
John Fortier, senior research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says the comments from the Christian event have been taken out of context, and that Mr Trump was simply trying to “encourage the sometimes reluctant Christian community to vote in this election”.
“Trump in office would be able to address their concerns so much so that it would not matter if they chose to vote in future elections,” he explains.
“It was not an indication that Trump would cancel future elections or try to serve beyond his second term.”
Offering reasons why Mr Trump would likely not pursue an extra term, Mr Fortier points out that the president-elect has previously indicated he would not have run for office again in 2028 had he lost this election, adding he “expressed a kind of wistfulness about his final campaign for office”.
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He also says Mr Trump’s age is a factor.
The 78-year-old, who is already the oldest person to be elected president, will be 82 by the end of his second term.
“And president Biden’s withdrawal is evidence that the American people are attuned to age-related decline and will look sceptically on octogenarian candidates for president,” Mr Fortier adds.
Could Trump do it if he wanted to?
It would be “virtually impossible”, according to retired Commonwealth Court judge Joseph Cosgrove.
He would have to amend the Constitution to do it, which Mr Cosgrove says is an “arduous task”.
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“The usual method requires two-thirds of both the House and Senate to propose an amendment, which would then require three-fourths of the states to approve,” he explains.
“Given the extremely close political divisions in the United States, neither of these events is foreseeable. Even if the Republicans control both the House and Senate, their majority will be so slim that no revision of the 22nd Amendment could ever occur in this climate.”
Mr Fortier, who agreed with Mr Cosgrove’s points, says some legal scholars have suggested there are loopholes that could be exploited to get around the two-term limit.
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“They argue that the 22nd Amendment prohibits someone from running for a third term [but] not from serving a third term,” he says.
“And by an ingenious trick, a term-limited president could be elected to the vice presidency or placed in the line of succession and then ascend to the presidency when those ahead of him in the line of succession resign.”
He adds that this theory, however, ignores a number of other amendments and other constitutional laws which indicate that a vice president or someone else in the line of succession “must meet the qualifications to become president”.
And Mr Trump, or someone else who has already served two terms as president, would not meet that criteria thanks to the 22nd Amendment.
