Ukraine has the most to lose as rivals and allies prepare for Trump’s return
Some countries are putting a brave face on, while others are despondent, concerned and ambivalent. But what seems certain is uncertainty.
US allies and enemies are having to adjust rapidly after Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the presidential election. In the corridors of power the world over, they are working overtime to accommodate a new reality.
Allies are putting a brave face on it but would mostly have preferred a Harris victory and continuity.
There will be despondence at the election of a man who has promised to undo the progress they have made with America on globally important issues like climate change.
And there will be concern. In his first presidency, Donald Trump displayed contempt for the rules-based post-war world order built and led by America and the pillars of the Western alliance.
That order has for decades guaranteed US dominance in the world but Trump seems to regard its institutions with suspicion. America he claims is ripped off by them, NATO in particular.
Closest to home the neighbour most likely to suffer is Mexico. It is threatened now by swingeing tariffs promised by Trump, mass deportations of immigrants and US military incursions against drugs cartels.
The ally with most to fear is Ukraine. Both Trump and his vice president-elect JD Vance have talked of bringing the war there to an end on what sounds like Moscow’s terms. Russia would be allowed to keep much of the territory it has taken by brute force, Ukraine’s membership of NATO postponed for decades.
That will be satisfying for Vladimir Putin. He has spoken in glowing terms today of Trump’s courage and resilience and how he was bullied in his first term in office.
Western diplomats remain mystified at Trump’s open admiration for authoritarian leaders in contrast with the contempt he has shown their democratically elected Western counterparts.
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China will be ambivalent about Trump’s return. Its government is thought to have regarded the chaos of his first term in office as further evidence of the decline of a decadent West, hastening the advent of China as a global hegemon. But the Chinese like to have the measure of their rivals and are disconcerted by Trump’s unpredictability.
Iran doubly so. In his first term in office President Trump ripped up the Iran nuclear deal and had assassinated the country’s most preeminent military commander, Qassem Soleimani. His national security team have made it clear we can expect more confrontation against Iran’s regime.
That will delight the Israeli government. Its prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had an up-and-down relationship with Trump but may well be given more latitude to fight his wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Palestinians have plenty to fear from a president who has never shown sympathy for their cause.
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There is of course a limit to how far we can foresee the impact of a Trump presidency abroad. In his first term in office he promised to build a border wall and have it paid for by Mexico, to bring peace to the Middle East and tame North Korea. None of it happened.
What seems certain is uncertainty. In movies, sequels can be dull and predictable. Trump II may be anything but.
